Its time to look back at some of my predictions and how they went haywire. Seriously, I suck at these! The original post is here: Predictions

Arsenal (My Prediction- Fourth)

I got this one right. Arsenal ended the season at fourth place. A very disappointing season for the club and a poor start in the new stadium. Thierry Henry contributed practically nothing this year (due to a series of injuries). Ditto for Robbie Van Persie. They were pretty competitive against the the big teams (they took 6 points off United!) but poor away form and the inability to convert possession into goals resulted in a title no show.

A very disappointing run of form in the Champions League also resulted in getting knocked out by PSV Eindhoven. (how I relished that result!) A glorious run in the Carling cup was probably the only bright spot in an otherwise nothing season.

Expect the take over saga to run through the summer resulting in Kroenke winning full control and then promising a number of big signings for Wenger. Whether this team ever comes out of the “transition” period remains to be seen. A top quality striker is an absolute must during the transfer window.

Possible Transfers:

Arsene Wenger is expected to find his summer transfer budget this week. The club is doing well financially so Wenger would definitely be able to go after two or three players. And he needs some big signings to convince the likes of Fabregas and Henry. What will happen to Henry this year? Rumours are on that Barcelona are interested in getting Henry to Nou Camp. Samuel Etoo now seems certain to leave Barcelona and Arsenal’s style would suit him a lot more than those of Chelsea and Liverpool. Julio Baptista is definitely moving back to Madrid but whether Reyes will move in the opposite direction remains to be seen.

Liverpool (My prediction- Second)

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My original prediction was that Liverpool would run Chelsea close for the title. I expected Rafa Benitez to get it right in England after two attempts. But both haven’t happened. The Reds have lacked firepower up front and also creative wingers. That said, they are in the final of the one trophy that both Ferguson and Mourinho wanted more than anything else- the Champions League. Benitez will be looking to add one winger and one more striker during the summer. I expect him to offload Craig Bellamy to any team that will take him.

Benitez has proved his mastery in Europe but the fans want the league title more than anything else. Its close to two decades since Liverpool and have been crowned Champions of England and fans will undoubtedly be disappointed that the team is not even challenging for the title. But, the Champions League title could prove to be very sweet compensation.

Possible Transfers

Liverpool are expected to sign Brazilian youngster and Lucras Leiva. Funnily enough he is a holding midfielder. Liverpool really lack players in that position! But he has got to be one for the future, whether he adapts to life in England remains to be seen. It is very possible that Liverpool’s best signing of the season came in January when they signed on Mascherano from West Ham United. Liverpool have also signed Andriy Voronin from Bayern Leverkusen, he is expected to add much needed strike power to the squad.

What do Aston Villa , Liverpool and Manchester United all have in common? Yes, The common denominator in all these clubs is an American owner. And if Stan Kroenke has his way, Arsenal FC will join that ever growing list.

The opposition has been vehement, both from the fans and from the board. Although there has been some misguided thoughts that the takeover will allow Arsenal to mix it with the big boys. The takeover doesn’t make any sense. It does not make sense the business way, let me explain why.

For all of those misguided souls who think that Stan Kroenke is another Russian sugar daddy like Roman, face it, HE IS NOT. Period. He is not going to walk into the Arsenal boardroom with a blank cheque in hand and ask Peter Hill Wood or Danny Fiszman to fill out an amount they deem enough. As one person in put it “We (Arsenal) won’t be a rich man’s play thing, more likely we will be his wallet and washing machine”. Put in simple terms, he is simply going to burden the club with more loans and subsequent interest payments.

For all those people who know how businesses work you can skip this paragraph, for those of you who don’t read on. When a business makes money it puts money in the pockets of the owner. Then owner then decides whether he wants to buy a shiny new Mercedes and let the business stagnate or whether he wants to reinvest the money and make the business even bigger. The latter is the case with present board of directors of Arsenal.

The present board does not take home the profits instead they let club take whatever profits it generates. Will Stan the man do the same thing?? You are going to have a tough time to convince me that he will do the same thing. There is otherwise no incentive for him to cross the Atlantic.

And you saw this in our site first, Arsenal WILL be the richest club in the world next year this time. No, please stop laughing; I’m not delusional neither am I high. The half year figures for the month ending November is 100.8 million pounds. Compare this figure to the 57 million last year. 9 million pounds can be written off as non-football related income so that makes it 91 million pounds. Arsenal made 156 million for the whole of last year, if we were to extrapolate this figure Arsenal would end up with something like 200 million pounds this year. Add to this the cash injection of nearly 20 million to all premier league clubs the picture does look very rosy indeed.

The extra income is primary due to 3 million pounds match day income, naming rights and other merchandise. The 3 million is the highest anywhere in Europe. Obviously, being in London has its own advantages.

In layman terms

40 million extra in revenues + 20 million TV money – 17 million in loans repayment - Lot of money in increased player wages(Gallas, Henry etc) – Running costs of the stadium = A very rosy picture.

Of course the 260 million pounds is being repaid over 25 years and anything can happen between now and then maybe English football will face a total collapse like the Italian league. But by in large there are reasons to be optimistic.

Coming back to my original point, If at all Stan Kroenke takes over the club, the money is not going come out of his own pocket. He is going to borrow nearly 700 million pound which will be required to buy the club.

Who is going to repay all that money??? Of course its going to Arsenal Football Club.

Just because Kroenke has taken over are the clubs profit magically going to increase? Of course not!

So basically what will happen is that the repaying of the 700 million plus interests will eat into the profits that Arsenal will generate. Which means lesser resources to compete with, more loans to repay and in case some untoward happens its infinitely more damaging to the club.

This is not the last time we are going to hear of this story, I’m sure it’s going to take up a lot of column inches in the back pages in the summer. Most likely idle gossip but what make the equation interesting is Double-D (David Dein) has sided with the Yank and is his 14.6% stake in the club going to have a say? Time will answer that question. The other members of the board positively baulked at the very notion of an American owing the club and so have many of the fans.

So there, the fans, I think are far more concerned about the financial side of the Football Club rather than the sentimental side. Finally, for the fans, the welfare of the club is paramount. If Kroenke was good for the club he will be welcomed with open arms rather than with pickets saying “Go Away, Stan”.

You know when you have tooth-ache, you know when you suck on the tooth that it will ache but you still do it to check whether it still aches. Why am I saying this? Well, that experience is not too dissimilar from being an Arsenal fan at the moment; you don’t want to watch because it is painful to see them lose. But you still watch in the hope that things might click miraculously and they end up tonking some team. Unfortunately, things rarely happen that way, if ever.

The present day malaise has been blamed on many things, World cup hangover, moving to a new stadium, loss of some key players, over physicality of the other teams, fixture congestions among other things. Chelsea had a lot of players in the World cup so did ManU that dint stop them this season has it? The fixture list hasn’t been kind to any of the teams, when has it ever? It was always a reason to have a good moan about but never an excuse.

To be fair to Arsene, he has had his fair share of injuries. Henry has been practically out for the entire season. Robin Van Persie’s season has been stop start. So has been Gallas’. Our (Arsenal fans) argument has been if ManU had Rooney, Ronaldo and Vidic out for same amount of time would they have been the same team? The answer is probably is No. But are you in effect, admitting the rest of the squad is not good enough to overcome the likes of West Ham (twice!), Sheffield United, Everton and Bolton? After all they still have the best record against the so called “Big Four”.

Out of the cups in a cruel fashion, for the first time in a long time we don’t have anything to look forward to, we have always had a cup final, or a title race to look forward to. There is visible lack of motivation in the players in the last few games. You are waiting for a player to take the game by the scruff of the neck and that almost invariably never happens. If the players assume that they are going to finish 4th then this season is in very real danger of falling apart. Bolton and Everton are breathing down our necks, even Sp*rs can mount a late charge. 7th place for Arsenal, anyone?

Finishing in a champions league spot is paramount to the clubs fortunes, not only in the literal sense but also in terms of being to attract top talent to the club. How many top class players would want to come to a club who is not going to play in the Champions league? Not many I would think.

More worryingly for the fans is that Wenger seems to think that present squad is good enough to compete for the league and that he is not likely to add to the squad in the summer. It scares the living daylights out of me, seriously. Freddie seems to have lost it, I don’t even remember the last time he scored in the league. Hleb for all his close control and ball-skill is never likely to get you 10 goals a season. Baptista looks as though he was born yesterday, new born giraffe at that. I think it’s time we showed these 3 players the door. That leaves us with a couple of 19 year olds, a 17 year old and no wide player to speak of, hardly a mid-field that would leave the opposition quaking in their boots. Defence too needs some work but that will be a rant for another day, Up front this over reliance on Thierry Henry has all too readily been exposed this season. We must dread the day that we have to replace this demigod.

I’m sorry if I sound so negative in the post, I can’t feel anything but that. I am typing as I watch the Newcastle game, one of the most insipid performances I have seen from an Arsenal team in all these years of following them.

Among all the doom and gloom do we still have reason to be cheerful about, straws that we can clutch on to, to save our faces this season? Yes, we never have to seen Alexander Song in an Arsenal shirt again.Kidding, one bright spark has been the kids and their wonderfully fearless performance in the Carling cup, notably Liverpool, Everton and Sp*rs and the first half hour against Chelsea in the final. It augurs well for the future but most fans can be notoriously fickle and instant gratification is on top of every fan’s list. The “punctual trophy” can be hard to achieve, ask Fergie, he’ll let you know.Next season can’t surely be as bad, can it? Until then I’ ll be praying. *Enters meditative state again*

Vignesh

Vignesh is an avid Arsenal fan and loves an argument. So now would be a good time for all those Man U, Liverpool and Chelsea fans to rub it in.

[digg=http://digg.com/soccer/Arsenal_Debacle]

Two of the biggest players in the world may be playing for different clubs come August 07. And No, I’m not talking about the 250 million $ mistake, David Beckham. I’m referring to the speculation surrounding Ronaldinho and Christiano Ronaldo. The two lynch pins of their respective teams, have had contrasting seasons.

Ronaldo, who was the scourge of England after the Rooney red card, has more than weathered the storm, he has gained mileage out of it. I don’t recall a player thriving on hatred as much as him and he seems to be getting better when he incurs the wrath of the away fans. His goal scoring record in the premiership matches thhose of top Premiership strikers. Granted, he does go missing and he can be a big fat turd, but even the most passionate Man utd hater would agree that CR7 has been their player of the year. I must commend Fergie for keeping his faith in Christiano. He saw talent when the rest saw an egotistical one trick pony with a fetish for step overs. Even when the ex sporting lisbon winger was issuing come and get me pleas to nearly every major European club, Fergie kept his cool and also appeased his fans, who at that point didn’t mind seeing his back. But will Christiano repay the faith? My guess is not.From the press reports he does look like he comes from the Luis Figo school of mercenaries and has so far not distanced himself from the speculation. It could be another Henry to Barca farce but who knows?

Another transfer talk that is doing the rounds is that of Ronaldinho to Milan. He has been an unhappy Brazilian for sometime now, the dance is missing, the smile is vacant and the passing has been well, crooked. Few are blaming his on field malaise on Laporta’s reluctance to hand out big bonuses he was due. Even ex Vice President and man behind the ‘Ronaldinho to Barca’ Transfer coup, Sandro Rosell has chimed in with his two cents. He claims that Barca were not fair to him and monetary issues have contributed to R10’s loss of form. Out of work Rosell, finds himself talking about Barcelona more often than not, though he had cut ties with the club atleast a year and a half ago. Maybe he should shup his mouth and move on with his life.

But It does look like all is not well. Personally, I wouldn’t dread a Ronnie less Barca. He has been a great servant but It looks like it is time to part ways. He would still command an astronomical fee and I don’t want Barca to commit the 50million $ howler that Arsenal committed in not selling Le Tit. It would be a match made in heaven. Barca would also promote Bojan or Dos Santos and may get Ronaldo to soften the blow.Its months before the transfer window reopens, so we will have to wait a while to see if there is anything to the tabloid talk. Until then, we have some good football to cover.

Technorati Tags: Cristiano, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Barcelona, Milan, Football

I feel rather sorry for Jose Mourinho. I’m not echoing too many sentiments here, obviously, because by and large, people look at him and think, “Arrogant Git” (Perhaps its empathy?). Anyway, let me tell you why.

I don’t need to give any of you guys the background of the situation. Roman buys Chelsea. Chelsea finish second. Roman buys Jose (literally). Spends millions and millions of pounds. Chelsea win title. Roman vaguely happy with his football empire. Still wants more. Spends millions again. Chelsea win title again. Empire not crumbling, but certainly not expanding. Spends a few more quid. Season so far – second in the table, in the second round of the Champions League. Through to the FA Cup 4 th round. And a 1-1 draw against Wycombe Wanderers (!) in the first leg of the Carling Cup semi-final. Didier Drogba and Michael Essien apart, they haven’t really set the league on fire, by any measure. There have been two or three spectacular games, notably against Arsenal and, dare I say it, Reading. But on the whole, Chelsea have looked defensive, and there doesn’t appear to be any real strength in depth, as far as the squad is concerned.

‘Chelsea’s squad?’, you may ask. ‘They’ve spent hundreds of millions of pounds on that squad!’ True, true, but almost every single player they bought came with an inflated transfer fee, and the squad as a unit haven’t really lived up to the prices on their heads. Didier Drogba, of course, looks a steal, especially now that he’s cut the diving out of his game (for the most part). Petr Cech was bought by Ranieri, and was a real bargain at just 6 million quid. But then look at the rest – Shaun Wright-Phillips? Jon Obi Mikel? Asier Del Horno? Michael Ballack? (He came on a free, with a 130,000 pound/week pay packet) Andriy Shevchenko?

That last name in particular holds a lot of significance for me. And for Jose too, I believe.

It seems fairly clear that Jose wasn’t that keen on buying Sheva. At least, he wasn’t as keen as Abramovich was. He has undoubted quality, but he’s getting older, losing his pace, and generally looks like he’ll have trouble adapting to the physical nature of the English game. I’d love for him to prove everyone wrong and score bagfuls of goals, because an in-form Shevchenko is magnificent. Can’t see it happening in the immediate future though.

The Oligarch was behind the transfer deal, it is widely suspected, and he was going against Jose’s wishes. For all his bravado and big talk, Jose is actually a very good manager. I won’t say anything about his tactics, because the sight of Robert Huth playing up front still makes me laugh, His man management skills are without question, however. And so are his motivation techniques. His persona seems to have rubbed off on a lot of the squad, as is evident by the arrogance of Lampard and the whining of Terry. Not to mention the gamesmanship of Carvalho and Drogba. They take themselves too seriously though. With Jose, its clear he’s having a laugh, even when he’s whining. Everything he says, everything he does, is designed to attract attention towards him and away from the failings of his team. Not 3 days ago, the Pensioners drew 1-1 against Wycombe, a club three divisions below them in the league. Normally, this would attract much attention and more than a lot of mirth from non-Chelsea supporters. Nobody’s talking about it for two reasons though. One, David Beckham (see below). And two, Jose’s come out and said that he is ‘only a manager’ and effectively said that he doesn’t control the signings. Normally, we’d dismiss this as the (engineered) ravings of a man desperately trying to draw attention away from his team. This time, I think he has a point.

I think a lot of the buys Chelsea have made over the last two and a bit years (Alexei Smertin, anybody?) have been made against Jose’s wishes. The specter of Roman appears to be hanging over a lot of their signings. Specifically those who are out of favour. Peter Kenyon was in all likelihood the mastermind behind the deals involving SWP, Ballack and Mikel, to name but three. Apart from Sheva, of course.

Mourinho doesn’t want to play any of these guys, but it appears that his hand is being forced by someone higher up, at least in the case of Ballack and Shevchenko. Ballack has been anything but impressive so far, and Shevchenko has been played out of position in order to accommodate him in the eleven. The side’s defensive frailties have been exposed by the recent injury to John Terry, and with Joe Cole out for the season, he’s lost one of the most mercurial players in the league. He has tons of players, but he doesn’t want to play them. Instead, he wants to buy MORE players, which leads me to believe that he didn’t really want any of these guys in the first place. Peter Kenyon has shoved off to China (how convenient), and Roman Abramovich recently said in an interview ‘We do not have a warm relationship. But it is friendly’. Or something like that (make of that statement what you will).

In summary , Jose’s got players he doesn’t want to play in the squad. He doesn’t have control over a lot of the transfers (this is my suspicion). He is being forced to play big names, because they are big names. And he’s got injuries in the squad which he wants to cover with new players. Abramovich, for all his philanthropy, is not going to shell out more money. Kenyon’s not in town. Jose’s got his back against the wall. And I’d like to think he’ll fight back.

They play Wigan tonight, and Mourinho has said that Shvechenko will be dropped, and if the board have a problem with that, well, too bad, I’ll be off now. And for all his outbursts, I’m quite fond of him, and I hope he stays in England. What do you reckon?

Oasisboy

Technorati Tags: Chelsea, Football, Soccer, Mourinho, Shevchenko, EPL

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