No, no the cricketers are quite safe. In quite a daring move, the Indian selectors have chosen to leave out the three big names from the list of probables for the 20-20 world cup. In the absence of further information at this point, let us feel free to speculate on why:

1. The Indian selectors are far thinking and want to groom the next generation of cricketers. In a move in that direction, they have decided to test out some new blood at the world cup.

2. The older players’ styles are not suited to the requirements of the wham-bam cricket that is 20-20. You need aggressive and extremely agile cricketers which the older guys are not. So, they have been dropped from the team.

3. This is actually a suggestion by one of the leading players of the team. They are interested in grooming the next generation or have ad shoots during that period. Hence this move.

4. They haven’t actually been dropped. This is a warning to the senior players that the selectors wield power too. After massive public outcry and criticism from other older players, these players will be included in the team.

Readers, please feel free speculate on the issue.

Full credit to the Australians. No doubt that they are a bunch of unbelievably talented and super fit individuals. But what continues to amaze me is their mental strength and big match temperament. And it looks like they are putting together a great team for the next world cup. Earlier, I had argued that the Australian teams dominance was probably coming to an end with a spate of high profile retirements but the emergence of men such as Tait, Bracken and Clarke gives the Australian team every chance to dominate the next world cup as well.

They are so far ahead of the rest that it cricket has become a wee bit boring. The unpredictability factor is totally missing when the Australians play. So much so that even the smallest hiccup is big news. The rest of the world has a lot of catching up to do.

A word on Adam Gilchrist:

It is true in Indian cricket more than anywhere else: the more things change, the more they remain the same. The team’s nucleus remains pretty much the same, the fielding and fitness levels or mental strength haven’t seen any drastic upward trends, we continue to travel poorly and more action continues to happen off the field than on it. Chappell was and is wrong in making public the issues he had with individuals, groups or the team in its entirety. In answering questions during interviews – while it might go against his natural instincts- it is in everyone’s interests to “well-left” certain issues. And in imitating Chappell’s actions, the senior Indian players have shown lack of maturity too. Why should Sachin choose to say things in public now- something he hasn’t for 17 years? Makes one wonder whether these guys are no longer capable of actually going out on the field and showing us that the attitude issues that are being bandied about do not actually exist. Is there some truth in what Chappell is saying and are our players afraid that this time their actions on the field will actually lead the public to believe the coach? Is the media the last resort to extend flagging careers?

But I come here neither to praise Chappell nor to bury him. I don’t know the answers to any of the questions I raised or to any malaise afflicting Indian cricket but this much I know for sure: we have too much media involvement in our cricket and it isn’t good for Indian cricket to have dirty linen washed in the open like this.

This article is not an effusive burst after the display against the Bangladesh tigers. The NZ team has been playing impressive cricket for a while now. The top order looks settled: Fleming is in fine form, with all the grace that southpaws seem to possess, Marshall batted well yesterday and they are blessed by the absence of Lou Vincent.

McMillan and McCullum are both seasoned campaigners with success in many conditions. The bits and pieces players- Oram, Styris. They are both key men in this Kiwi campaign. They are both very powerful batsmen and tight bowlers, who can make their impact with the ball and the willow.

Vettori has been the finest left arm spinner in the world for a few years now and with useful batting skills, would be in my list of players to have in any world eleven. Shane Bond, the only fast bowler with a clean action. I haven’t seen anyone bowl as fast, as straight and with as clean an action. All the chuckers (read Malingas and Akhtars?) of the world please note that it is possible to bowl fast without cheating!

In spite of all this, this team will not win the WC. The absence of a superstar means that the team is perennially ignored in predictions of winners but always figures in the final four. They seem to lack that one individual that will stand up on the big stage and deliver against the Aussies or the Lankans. Fleming, Vettori and Bond are the most likely candidates for that role but frankly, I don’t quite see that happening.

Kiwis, won’t fly long and high: semifinalists

PS: Who else thinks the Windies got a raw deal facing the Aussies, Lankans and Kiwis first up and in such quick succession in the Super 8s? (3 of the 4 semi-finalists) 

I digressed completely. Ah yes, the first match of the Super8s: Australia vs WI. A mouth-watering clash. Australia came into the tournament with a few things to prove. While they did beat SA comfortably, there was a period during the match when SA was cruising – before Kallis won it for the Aussies. The batting looks strong- it always did. The bowling still looks iffy to me. They don’t seem to be able to contain aggressive batsmen. And in the last few matches against the Windies, they have won the finals of

tournaments and lost the league games- A cause for worry? The West Indian team also has come through without any losses and they are looking like a settled unit to me. Not as experienced as the Aussies maybe, but they are well versed with the local conditions. Their batting is not as strong as the Aussies’ perhaps: let’s see current form [tag]Hayden[/tag] and [tag]Gilchrist[/tag] are better, Ponting better, Clarke better (marginally only). But the bowling, that’s the key: The West Indians don’t have world beaters but their bowling is nagging, effective and with [tag]Gayle[/tag] and [tag]Samuels[/tag] turning their arms over, has variety. Australian bowling has variety only in the form of Hogg- I don’t think Lara is worried! and I am not sure if Symonds will be bowling too much.

On paper Australia look favorites but it will be a question of whether the West Indian bowlers can restrict the free flowing Aussie line-up. If they can and they bat decently, they should win. As is always the case when playing the Aussies, you need to bat, bowl and field well to win. In this case the bowling is especially important as the batting is capable of handling the likes of Tait and Hogg.

My prediction: Australia wins.

1. Cricket is a sport – a game. Its not a question of life and death. We, as fans/supporters have every right to feel cheated/disappointed/angry with the team’s performance. We however have no right to abuse their personal space and their families. The police having to spend resources to protect the houses of our players is ridiculous – not for the action but for the need arising to do it.
2. The players are not in the game to fulfill our fantasies and dreams. It’s a career for them. It’s what gives them their daily bread and luxuries. They can make money only over a limited timeframe – a shelf life shall we say? It is absolutely valid for them to earn money from other avenues like promotions and [tag]advertisements[/tag]. To suggest that their advertisements are the cause of their poor performance is sheer stupidity. Does your work get affected by your dealing on the stock market or investing your money in banks? Or for that matter by your working for your local Rotary Club or heck even by your watching a movie? The board and the coach arrange for sufficient matches and training camps. As long as the players attend these – we have no right to cry foul.
3. Saying that the players should be banned from advertisements is completely unfair – as is suggesting that their performance should dictate the amount they get paid for advertisements. It’s a statement unfair not only to the players but also to the companies they represent in the ads. Let the market decide what they should pay whom. Also next time we read a report saying that a player’s sex life affects quality of performance on the sports field, will we go ahead and regulate his sex life too?
4. The players DO NOT work on tax-payers’ money. We do not pay him his salary. Just like we don’t demand that Amitabh Bachchan should only be paid if we like the movie, we have no right to demand that the player should only be paid if we like what he does on the ground.
5. Also while a loss in the first round is shameful and unexpected – it does not mean that the team is shit. TV channels seem thrilled to get opinions from viewers that literally use these words about them.  It means that our performance was not good enough this time around. If we have doubts about the quality of their performance – we have the option to stop watching their games altogether – without wanting them stoned/burnt or worse killed.
6. “India Great” when we win a match and “India Worst” when we lose a match – and have these emotions swing wildly every match is not a done thing. Just like everyone else, the players too will appreciate stability of emotions. Either hate the team and do not follow them or support them and bear the low performances. Do not be like the creepy friend who only sticks to you when you have the money to spend on him. No one wants the wild swinging between heavens and prayers and then effigy burning and stoning.
7. The MPs and MLAs demanding a probe into the performance will be better off allowing the CBI to conduct the probes into them in a free and fair manner. And would you mind being not corrupt for a change please? And minding some slightly more important business about running the country?
8. Can the channels and people concentrate their efforts on tracking down real villains and criminals rather than attack the soft targets that the players are?
9. Finally what are we really pissed about – the fact that we crashed out of the WC or the fact that rich cricketers crashed out of the WC ?

I know I have repeated my points over and over again but then so do the newschannels.

I must thank you guys for sparing me the agony of at least six more sleepless nights over the next one month. I must thank you for saving me and my friends the countless hours spent at work talking about you guys, and which of you will do well and how. I must thank you for saving my evenings, which can now be spent in ways more productive than just watching some boring one-sided cricket on TV.

I must thank you guys for saving all the dinnertime conversations with friends and family and relatives. Cricket, I think was taking up too much space there, and we weren’t talking enough about other (and more important) things. Normalcy should be restored now.

There are some less trivial things i must thank you for. You guys were being used in some really awful ads, and I’m happy that those guys are going to lose out now. Sachin’s sunfeast ad, the egg ad with the Bombay team, Rahul in Sansui and Bank of Baroda, and most importantly the really irritating and awful Pepsi ad. Now that I won’t watch much more of the world cup, I’ll also be saved the agony of watching all these things. Hopefully the awesome Nike commercial should still continue.

Best of all, I must thank you for initiating the bankruptcy of the awful Sony Entertainment Television. As I had described in my previous post last week, they would stand to be one of the largest losers thanks to this loss. Hopefully this setback means they will never ever try to bid for sport again. What with their 5 ball overs, and ads during every possible break, and no proper highlights package, and really really awful pre-match and post-match shows.

I might be repeating myself but I thank you for ridding us of that Mandira. She thinks she looks good, but she sucks at cricket. Just can’t speak. Myabe your loss will inspire her to abandon her noodle straps and whatever else Satya Paul designed for her, and go do another Shanti. As long as she stays away from sport, I’ll be forever indebted to you.

And last but not the least, I must thank you for putting in your best efforts and trying to give us a good world cup. Unfortunately, sport being sport, there will always be upsets and you guys are returning home sooner than expected. Just chill for a while, spend some time with your families and maybe play some football. And don’t even think about cricket till the selections for the Bongla tour are due. A break was long overdue, and you have it now. Make the best use of it.

Thanks again for everything, and hope you will be protected against those imposters who, claiming to be fans, will stone your houses, burn your posters and maybe even try Escobar one or more of you. All the best for everything in the future.

Thanks and regards,
SKimpy

Cricket may be a religion, it may be a passion, it may be a first love for many – but why do we insist on forgetting that above all else it is still a sport. Not a battle of life and death. A sport in which victory and loss are fickle guests for every team. A sport which is made exciting by its cliched but true glorious uncertainties and twists and turns. If everything went to plan and the stronger team were to win all the time – not only would the game be no fun – India wouldn’t ever have been the World Champions in 1983.

The Indian team has plenty of fans – nay fanatics but seemingly just a handful of supporters. It’s almost as if an army of Team India -Baiters (News Channels, Ex-Cricketers and Fanatics) just wait for a chance to start abusing the players and to push them off the pedestal they stand on. But hold on a minute – who put them on the pedestal? For the life of me, I can’t remember a Sachin or a Rahul proclaiming that they were sporting Gods and should be worshipped as such! That their place was on a pedestal! If we put them on the pedestal, let’s atleast respect their personal lives just that little bit. Criticism? Sure. But let it involve a balanced view. Disappointment? Ofcourse! Frustration? That our right. Attacks? Hell no. But amongst all the rambling – my expression of thoughts is not even a patch on Rudyard Kipling’s classic – “And if you can face Triumph and Disaster – and treat those two imposters just the same – you will be a man my son!” About time we accepted the lows of Indian cricket with the highs.

The Format

When the organizing committee of the Cricket World Cup (CWC2007) came up with the present format, it was hailed by one and all. “We give a chance to the minnows, polish them off and have a proper world cup in the 92 format among the 8 major teams”, they said. Most people nodded. One thing, however, that people didn’t reckon was about the impact of an upset.

The pair of Saturday’s upsets has created havoc in the world cup schedule. Ireland are most probably through to the super eight, and Bangladesh will also be fancying their chances. However, it is unlikely that the minnows can consistently sustain their form, and this means that their games in the super eight will be rendered useless. Another upset, and England’s poor form could actually render the whole super eight exercise to a sham!

The Value of an Upset

The financial value of an upset is huge. If (god forbid) India fail to qualify for the super eight, Sony Entertainment Television (already smarting under the feed sharing ordinance and late night matches) stands to lose a huge amount of money in terms of advertising revenue. This would be an utterly crippling blow to the bouquet of channels, something it will take a long time to recover from.

Inzy’s head is set to roll. He is most likely to be stripped off captaincy. There will be large scale changes in the Pakistan team. With Pakistan being Pakistan, some team members might actually be Escobared (Update (21-Mar): Woolmer has already died, and with the post-mortem report saying “suspicious”, we might already have an Escobar). The same is likely to be repeated in India if we could see some similar scenes here (no Escobar, though).

Then, most of the team members are brand ambassadors of various brands. These brands are likely to lose heavily thanks to the exit. Carefully crafted advertising campaigns will come to nought. Then, there are a large number of firms who rely on events such as the World Cup to boost sales. Offers are already flooding the market from various durable manufacturers, especially television. All these will come a cropper, with the hardest hit probably being Tata SKY.

The impact of the upset will not be restricted to the upset countries alone. With a large number of super eight matches turning meaningless, gate receipts (which are already not much) will dwindle. In-stadia advertising will decline. If they have already been sold, the people who currently hold the rights stand to lose.

People who were planning to Caribbean to watch the super eight might now suddenly cancel their plans, with their favorite teams out of the world cup. Tourism in the islands (which has already been hit thanks to a hefty visa fee) will be hit further. There are already heavy protests that they impoverished governments have spent too much for the World Cup. The protests will increase, and we might see a few Caribbean governments falling.

Clearly, the total costs of an upset are huge. Enormous.

It is amazing that the organizers never took into account an upset and the huge costs the current format brings to the various stakeholders. The committee should’ve devised a format where the odd upset wouldn’t have had a major impact on the tournament so early (like Zimbabwe beating India in 1999).

That said and done, nothing much can be done now. The format has been fixed and the upsets have been made. Still there is a ray of hope. Can’t the losers from the upset compensate the winner and overturn the decision? Can we try and salvage as much as possible from the current situation?

One illegal and immoral solution

It is clear that Ireland is in the super eight, so nothing can be done about that. However, there is still a ray of hope in group B (india’s group). I know it is illegal, but wouldn’t it make sense for a consortium of say SET, Tata SKY, LG and maybe tourism departments of West Indian governments to offer money to Bangladesh and ask them to lose to Bermuda? “you have done a fantastic job so far in the world cup. You’ve beaten India. Must be a very proud moment for your country. Can you please take this money now and leave, so that the rest of the world cup can go on? We would be better off without you!”

You might say this is scandalous. I don’t disagree. You will say it’s illegal. Of course it is. It will bring the game into disrepute. Yes. However, market forces and economics dictate that I do this. That this group (ok let’s leave the Caribbean governments out) offer money to Bangladesh to lose to Bermuda. On a purely financial basis, everyone will be better off!

Is there a legal solution to this problem? I mean, if you keep offering money to the underdogs to lose, aren’t you infringing on sporting spirit? What is the use of a tournament then? And why restrict it to cricket, I know that the Chennai Open lost a lot of money after Nadal was upset. Couldn’t all his opponents have been offered money to make sure he went to the finals?

One legal solution

Sadly, this solution can’t be implemented right now, but the parties concerned might want to look at this from the next tournament (starting with say the French Open; or maybe the Euro 2008 qualifiers) onwards. It is not a complete solution, but at least it helps the parties concerned mitigate the loss caused by the upset. It is the fine financial art of hedging.

By buying broadcast rights for a major tournament such as a world cup, you are unwittingly betting on the results of a few matches. Betting that the country where you’ll broadcast will do well. Betting that there aren’t too many major upsets. Betting that results will follow a certain pattern. You know you can’t affect the results, so the next best thing is to hedge!

Go to Ladbrokes, and take the opposite position. Bet, and bet well so as to limit your losses in case some results don’t go according to plan. Maybe you’re not very good at betting, and after all it’s not your core competence. Not to worry. I’m sure some good investment banker would come up with a product with returns linked to the results of a few matches. He will provide you a product with which all the implicit bets you’ve taken will be hedged. And he will go to Ladbrokes and hedge his position by taking positions there. And charge you a small premium for it. Beautiful, isn’t it?

 

• [tag]Sourav Ganguly[/tag], please rotate the strike. He was unable to get the ball away against Bermuda but during the entire period, was hardly looking to get the singles.
• [tag]Sehwag[/tag], when you need to get to that ball outside the off-stump, please move the feet. Bermuda is one thing but against Vaas, it will be trouble.
• Indian fielders, more commitment on the field please. I see other teams with old guys throwing themselves around when needed while we still believe in “safe” fielders.
• Indian bowlers, ball on the stumps to tail-enders please (not on  the leg stump). We could have got them out for less than 130 yesterday after 110-8.
• Batsmen, we know what you guys can do but consistency would be appreciated.
• [tag]Dravid[/tag], on the Port of Spain wicket Sehwag should probably be used a little more and even brought into the attack earlier (Sachin and Yuvraj too).
• Team management, [tag]Kumble[/tag] over [tag]Harbhajan[/tag]. I have never believed Harbhajan is a great bowler but we might need him to bowl tightly if we do go through.